Facing the Inevitable: James Toney will Knock Randy Couture Out!
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 09:34
From Fighters.com, written by Oliver Saenz
"I along with many other people scoffed and scorned when news broke that the UFC had signed aging pro boxer James “Lights Out” Toney to a fight with UFC legend and former Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture. My strongest initial reaction consisted of little more than “Randy Couture + Takedowns = Win”. That belief, that Couture’s wrestling will be far too much for James Toney to handle, seems to be the one almost everyone is betting on. But now that their showdown is little more than a month away, I find myself leaning towards “Lights Out” more and more.
One of my biggest reasons for this drastic change in opinion is the simple fact that Randy Couture hasn’t looked all that great in his recent return to the Octagon. Couture will always be one of the most talented men to have ever stepped inside of the Octagon, and you’ll never see me try to argue that. But the ageless wonder is beginning to show his age. Couture is 2-2 in his most recent stint inside the UFC, and even his two wins honestly didn’t impress me. In the Brandon Vera fight, he edged out a really close (but Unanimous) decision win that I know for a fact many fans disagreed with. In the Mark Coleman fight, Coleman showed up demoralized and a ghost of his former self. I truly believe that Coleman had lost that fight before he ever stepped inside the Octagon. In fact, I would be willing to bet anything that if anyone else in the world with even one-fourth of Couture’s talent had taken Couture’s place against the Mark Coleman that showed up at UFC 109, that person would have beaten Coleman just as decisively.
Also, let’s not forget that six of his ten career losses have come from the hands of his opponents: FIVE (T)KO’s and one submission due to strikes. Couture has been on the receiving end of several highlight-reel knockouts, and in three of his last four fights, all of his opponents came close to stopping him (only current UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar proved able to). With that fact firmly in your head, take the following into consideration: James Toney has been boxing professionally for over twenty years! And in those twenty years, he’s lost only six times. No matter how crazy you think he sounds in his interviews or how doomed to failure you think he may be, the man has an astonishing forty-four knockouts on his pro boxing resume. Most people admit that Toney has a “puncher’s chance”, when what they really mean is that Toney only has a shot at winning this fight is if he gets extremely lucky. Newsflash, people: it’s only going to take one punch. If Toney lands decently even once, he’ll do more than daze Couture. He’ll knock him clean out.
Plus Couture has never had pure knockout power, and if his recent fights are any indicator, his punching power is actually starting to go down. Add to all that the fact that Toney has never been (T)KO’d once. Not a single time. In over twenty tears. Couture will always have his dominant wrestling to fall back on, but consider this fact as well: this is going to be a Heavyweight fight, and Couture has always been a small Heavyweight. Toney will more than likely show up to this fight heavier than Couture, meaning that Couture will have to work hard and consistently work hard to score his takedowns. If Toney can make Couture work for every single takedown, that opens Couture up for more and more counter-punches. And that’s the beauty of this fight: Toney has fifteen minutes to land only one punch.
Some people think that the odds of Toney winning are ludicrous. I think the odds of Toney not landing one good punch in the span of fifteen minutes are ludicrous. It’ll send shockwaves up and down the MMA landscape, but 2010 has been the year of the epic upset. And Randy Couture is getting knocked out.
But that’s all my opinion, fans and friends. How do you see this fight going down?"
Makes me think...
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 09:42
#2
LF ARMY #063
The point about Randy not possesing KO power is odd to me. Why even bring that up? does ANYONE think Randy has a chance to KO Toney, I wouldn't think so. and certainly not from the stand up position.
Randy needs this on the ground. If he spends any amount of time trying to out box toney he will loose. I don't even think he should try to dirtybox with Toney.
If Toney does land a good clean shot and win, let him have what he wants. Lesnar or Carwin.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 09:57
#3
LF ARMY #073
I can't argue with him. He makes some good points.
If Randy does get him on the ground Toney will just try to stand up, even if it means taking open unanswered shots. Toney is not afraid of Randy's power. Randy will have to find a way to keep him on the ground. Keeping in mind Toney will have a 40lb+ weight advantage.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 10:45
#4
The only bright spot I see for Randy is the fact he was able to at least control brockzilla for a while. But Randy vs Nog is what scares me about this fight. Nog landed some clean shots, from a small heavyweight, and they dazed Randy badly.
This could end really bad for us MMA fans. Randy has a good chance, but this fight was all about ratings. I would have loved to have seen Toney take on Kongo. And the way Kongo looked in his last fight, I think it would have been a much better match up for the MMA fans. Plus if toney won that fight he beat a decent gatekeeper, and throw him Pat Berry.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 10:54
#5
randy pressing the cage + double over hooks+ takedown x ground and pound = james toney stfu
randy smart enough to work his gameplan to offset toney's punching power, he is not stupid. randy is also a decent striker, golden gloves when he was in the army, so he knows a little about boxing. randy has the ability to overcome weight differences, he has done it well before. brock lesnar is a beast and randy didnt get killed in the first two seconds so i think that has some merit.
toney's mental clarity is sketchy at best. regardless if he has never been knocked out. he still has taken LOTS of shots to the head. that adds up. you can see it his actions and hear it in his speech.
the numbers game as far as odds go is null and void in mma. anyone can get ko'd at anytime, but i just dont see this one going past the first round if toney gets dumped on his head.
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 06:03
#6
I think this article is the equivalent of a troll post on this forum designed specifically to elicit feedback, going so far as to actually solicit such a response at the end of the article. It is either that, or he is attempting to stir up some level of controversy as we all predictably expect Randy to pummel Toney (possibly under compensatory persuasion?)
That 1st paragraph compares Toney to randy's recent opponents as if he is on the same level. Would anyone confuse Toney with Vera or Lesnar? This line of reasoning makes no sense against an aging boxer who has spent the only several months learning a dangerous new game.
The 2nd paragraph is also irrelevant in terms of MMA. Couture has been wrestling as long as Toney has been boxing, and wrestling translates more readily to MMA than boxing as we know from the classic boxer vs. grappler match-ups of the early days. We all know Toney can punch, but the writer goes on to define "puncher's chance" as exactly what it is: a chance to KO someone regardless of skill level. That doesn't make Couture any more susceptible to Toney's power unless he irrationally decides to box with him. Even kicks alone would upset Toney!
The last paragraph continues the absurdity, since again, we should only consider Randy's power if he foolishly decides to box a boxer. Is the weight difference going to be enough to stifle an elite wrestler attempting to grapple w/ a man who has never wrestled competitively at any level even resembling Couture's pedigree? If Toney tries to punch instead of focusing on stopping the TD, then he's done for.
"Toney has fifteen minutes to land only one punch." The other side of this is that Couture has the same amount of time to do every other aspect of the game that Toney just learned, and has experience doing it against the best who have ever fought in this sport. Now what seems more ludicrous?
This is the most accurate part of his article:
“Randy Couture + Takedowns = Win”
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:27
#7
Let's dismantle this, because the whole of this argument is based on these terribly flawed parts.
"Couture has been on the receiving end of several highlight-reel knockouts, and in three of his last four fights, all of his opponents came close to stopping him (only current UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar proved able to). With that fact firmly in your head, take the following into consideration: James Toney has been boxing professionally for over twenty years!"-----False attribution? It wasn't striking that beat Randy, it was that he was forced to stand with superior/stronger strikers. Couture was been beaten by all these guys because they have EXCELLENT takedown defense, or they would not have hit him due to being on their back.----
"It’s only going to take one punch. If Toney lands decently even once, he’ll do more than daze Couture. He’ll knock him clean out."-----Pure speculation. We have no reason to think that any fighter is so dangerous on their feet that they will literally only need to land ONE punch. No jabs, no combination...ONE PUNCH. That fighter does not exist or he would already be the UFC champion.-----
"Couture has never had pure knockout power, and if his recent fights are any indicator, his punching power is actually starting to go down. Add to all that the fact that Toney has never been (T)KO’d once. Not a single time. In over twenty tears."-----This argument is only valid if Couture decides to box James Toney. When Randy faces a superior striker he attempts to take them to the ground. Randy has consistently been the best game plan type of fighter, but apparently dealing with a one dimensional striker is too difficult for him to break down? Also important, in boxing you can't be TKO'd due to a 230lb machine is elbowing your head into the mat------
"Toney will more than likely show up to this fight heavier than Couture, meaning that Couture will have to work hard and consistently work hard to score his takedowns."-----Are you f#*(% kidding? The 3 time Olympic alternate and 2 time national runner up can't take down a fat, punch drunk boxer? Have I been watching a different sport for the last ten years???-------
"If Toney can make Couture work for every single takedown, that opens Couture up for more and more counter-punches. And that’s the beauty of this fight: Toney has fifteen minutes to land only one punch."-----Back to this ridiculous idea. I'm sure Randy could eat some jabs and even a cross or two, his head movement is very good and he's only going to box to set up his shot.-----
"Some people think that the odds of Toney winning are ludicrous. I think the odds of Toney not landing one good punch in the span of fifteen minutes are ludicrous."-----This guy must have sh!# golden bricks when Art Jimmerson lost to that awful striker Royce Gracie. If Randy boxed James Toney for 15 minutes this argument would be valid. As is, it makes no serious point.-----
This guy is practically a shill. He is doing the equivalent of Rush Limbaugh....saying something that seems insanely implausible but, by the very nature of the insanity, forces people to keep listening. The FACT of the matter is that the UFC has/had strikers that have one punch KO power and/or world class technique and skills (Semmy Schilt, Tank Abbot, Anderson Silva, Crocop, Thiago Alves, etc.) and those skills do not win a fight without extensive sprawling and ground skills.
Think about it...this is the argument that the UFC and Pride have been settling for the last ten years. Grapplers win against strikers; we all know that. Somehow, when presented in this seemingly cogent argument, that FACT gets lost. MMA is the evolution of fighting, we've found what works and what does not. Boxing is not magic and has no dim mak; the wrestler will take him down and win. This guy has done nothing but repackage the "but if Mike Tyson was in mma...." argument, which we all know has been shown to be a joke.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:28
#8
LF GENERAL #000
I dont want to order this one, but I might just have to.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:29
#9
Enigma....you typed faster but we make the same points. James Toney should be a -100,000 for this fight.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:30
#10
Randy vs. Toney is a bad match up for Randy and when I mean a bad match up I mean he has a lot more to lose here, not that I think his odds of winning are less than Toney‘s. That being said Randy doesn’t use a Double except off the fence which means he’ll need to get close enough to pumble in for under hooks. Which means he won’t be changing level significantly, which makes me worried that he’s going to eat a cross coming in and that will be the end of it. I honestly think that they should have put him against Tito Ortiz. Not because I think Tito is better but because keeps his hands up better, he uses a double leg to take guys down, and his ground and pound is still better than most. Plus he is an unimportant figure in the UFC now so if he were to lose no one would really care, compared to the amount of people that are going to be pissed off if Randy loses, along with how bad it will make the sport I love look. But yeah, if randy can get his arms around him its done.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:48
#11
Do people really think that after wrestling for the last 40 years Randy Couture can't shoot a double? I guarantee you there is not a wrestling move that he has no performed thousands of times and could break down and teach to a person. This fight is a wrestlers dream
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 00:59
#12
going with bullet on this one. I doubt randy plans to stand and bang with this guy. He has a great deal of experience fighting and wrestling and can develope a succesful gameplan to win.
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 04:46
#13
LF ARMY #061
I don't think that Randy intends to have this stay standing.. I do agree that Toney could clip him at anytime and shut him down.. Randy's known for being primarily a Greco guy.. they arent' really known for their single and doubles as they aren't allowed.. from the waist up only.. but Randy has done some freestyle and has a wrestler's sensibilities..
I'm hoping that Randy's newfound interest in CACC will benefit him and I'd love to see some really nasty old school neck crank, facelock or some sick toehold/leg wrestling..
If I was the one booking any opponent for Toney, I'd have fed him to Brock, Carwin, Cain or possible Dos Santos..
Randy's game has always (imo) been about stamina and gameplan execution.. I would have liked to have seen someone who brings just a little more violent mindset to oppose Toney.. again imo, I think this is booked to 1.) make moeny (all fights are), but with the "freakshow" element of Toney being the monster with his punchy slurred speach, etc (Toney plays the Ogre) and Randy's the babyface, the gentleman, the legend.. 2.) its also booked with the possibility that if Toney does take out Couture.. THEN there's more hype ($$$) to then match him up against a more violent heavyweight saviour to topple the "evil" and reclaim MMA's honor and dignity.
Such is the "art" of matchmaking.. especially when your booking matches for a big stage like the UFC.. its not like booking local shows where folks show up to see a fight and by and large the combatants can be somewhat faceless and interchangeable.. on a national and worldwide platform.. you've got to have personalities.. like Rogan said.. a lot of that sells fights.. it makes drama and it pulls people into picking a side whether its someone you love or love to hate.
I'm pretty sure that when Silva and company were mulling over opponents for Toney all of this AND the possible different outcomes were considered.
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 06:01
#14
@BulletEater
Did you invade my dreams a la Inception?
We should do a buddy cop action comedy.
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 07:56
#15
@Enigma Ha. We really did have pretty much the same post. I think it's essential to break apart bad arguments, because they become really exposed that way.
@Kevin Randy has been wrestling (not Greco) since Jr. High. Since the Greco is usually done during summer, that leaves him with 11 years of collegiate style wrestling. That's as much as anybody out there.
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 08:11
#16
LF ARMY #061
True bullet.. but he's known more for greco.. from reading his auto-bio that was where he felt most comfortable after making the switch. He even discusses making the switch from folk and free to greco and then getting back into the USA program and feeling awkward trying to make a switch back the other way. I think maybe it has more to do with how he (or anyone) is wired from a body mechanics thing, what you're more naturally drawn to do. Still a big difference even between folk style from the jr high and high systems to collegiate and then to international freestyle or greco.
I still think Randy can win this. I just don't want to see him get clipped.
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 08:25
#17
LF ARMY #073
I want Randy to win in dramatic fashion. I am just saying don't count out a heavyweight professional boxer with a 72 win 6 loss record who as never been KO'ed. Toney has serious KO power and it only takes a clip to daze someone. This fight can go either way.
That said, Let's hope Randy makes him look like a fool!
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 08:55
#18
LF ARMY #063
When he talks about 1 punch KO power I don't think he's trying to imply that if James Toney lands any shot it will put Randy to sleep. It's like Chuck fight, if Randy can't take Toney down, or chooses not too, James can sit back and just wait to land the big shot. In that case I would absolutely give the nod to James.
Randy has a lot more weapons at his disposal and he's been in this situation virtually every fight. He needs to out work James and keep the pressure on him. Just like he did to Chuck in their 1st fight. Just like he did against Timmy, vitor, Ricco etc etc etc. And, he needs to not get caught like he did against Chuck (2 &3) Ricco, Vitor and Brock.
Classic power vs skill. The skill guy has to be good the whole fight. A great power guy just has to be great for a second.
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 11:25
#19
^^^^ Yeah, but the power only works in one specific area. Couture is going to help end the lie of the magic punch that each art has relied upon for the last decade. "But if my master hits with one butterfly kick, it's all over. Too bad it's too dangerous to ever try. One shot."
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 14:37
#20
If Toney wasn't so out of shape and old this fight would be a lot more interesting. It's only a matter of time before a younger boxer tries his hand, and I'm personally looking forward to it.
Put him in with Anderson Silva. Guaranteed that he's going to try and stand with him, whoever he is.
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